CarGurus is a website that uses an algorithm that compares the prices and the dealers to help you find the perfect car.
Now they say it's based on the price and you're area and they have millions of cars to chose from.
CarGurus was founded in 2006 by Mr. Steiner he whose one of the co-founders of TripAdvisor. With TripAdvisor you're only gonna stay in a place for a few days maybe a week and if things aren't perfect you can check out, it's not the end the world.
However using a using a system like that to buy a car that you're gonna be driving for years, sight on scene, seems like a crazy idea to me.
CarGurus is being traded on the stock market, so its a large corporation, and as with any large corporation a lot of times they get away from the original idea and it becomes all about profits.
And when it comes all about profits a lot of times they don’t care rather what their trying to get you to buy is any good or not.
So these cars are being listed mainly by price and they have no idea what kind of shape these cars are in so, if a guy's got a later model car it'll probably make it higher on their list maybe the car was wrecked flooded stolen who knows, you don't have any idea about that.
Let's say you pick a car you want, your allowed to give your email or phone number to CarGurus who contacts the dealer, a lot of people have said hey the dealer never contacted them back, and of course car guru doesn't want to show you exactly where it is because then you could by pass them and just go to the dealer.
Since CarGurus wants their cut it's all done on the Internet!
So a lot of customers say when they get to the dealership they were told that one's already been sold here's something else we got for sale, the used car business is kind of dirty, everybody who's ever been involved in it knows that.
A lot of times their just trying to get you to come in, thinking that they'll be able to sell you something once your in the store.
And in addition to this there are certain fees and stuff that aren't included in the price, neither CarGurus or the dealers have to stand by that original price they've got disclaimers all over the place.
But they say prices do not have to be honored by CarGurus or the dealership!
So the prices aren’t real… however they rank by price, a lot of times dealerships don’t have the cars in stock, they tack on extra fees, and a lot of times it takes you months to get the title.
When you buy a car you want the title!
Because when you flip it over and it says reconditioned or salvage title, you don't want to buy it but if you don't have that information in hand you can’t tell till its to late.
And to put a car on CarGurus you only need to have the year, identification number, transmission, type, color, and a photo and photos can lie.
You can Photoshop it, use AI to recreate it, if the back of the car smashed take a picture of the front, or what if the outside of the car looks good but the frame is rusted out?
Buying a car without seeing it and road testing it is just plain dumb!
What does a giant corporation, that's more worried about profits then anything else, really know about the cars that are listed on their site?
So you’ve got giant corporation with millions of cars, who know nothing about the cars, who care more about profits then anything else, putting themselves in the middle between the dealerships and consumers, for the sole purpose of making a profit.
They claim to list them from the best to the worst, but how are they saying which one is best when they don't know anything about the cars?
They're going by hearsay of what, or who rated this, who's to say that people that work at those companies aren't just typing in things saying, oh yeah this deal is great, fantastic, I know a guy that ran a shop and that's what he did, they'd go on social media and he'd have his mechanics typing saying how great his shop was so me I wouldn't trust what people are saying on CarGurus.
There's just too many ifs, they just make it look convenient, however buying a used cars is a lot more complex than that, if you want to do it right.
It can't be just about price!
Yet sites like cargurus.com ignores everything else and organize and show cars based on price and when price becomes the only thing your competing on it becomes nothing more than a race to the bottom for both the consumer and dealership.
You're absolutely right—price alone should never be the only factor when buying a new or used car. When sites like CarGurus, AutoTrader, or even Facebook Marketplace focus mostly on price comparisons, it creates a false sense of value that can mislead both buyers and sellers. A car isn’t just a number—it’s a machine you’re depending on every day, and there are deeper, more critical factors to consider.
Here are the most important things to evaluate beyond price:
1. Vehicle History (for Used Cars)
Why it matters: Accidents, title status (clean, salvage, rebuilt), number of previous owners, service records.
Check using: Carfax, AutoCheck, or even asking the seller for maintenance receipts.
2. Condition (Mechanical & Cosmetic)
Why it matters: A cheap car with hidden mechanical issues (engine, brakes, transmission) is more expensive long-term.
What to do: Get a pre-purchase inspection from an independent mechanic.
3. Ownership Costs
Why it matters: Depreciation is only one part. Consider:
Fuel efficiency
Insurance rates
Maintenance costs (some cars are more expensive to repair)
Availability of parts
Registration fees
4. Reliability & Brand Reputation
Why it matters: Some makes/models have a known history of reliability—or the opposite.
Why it matters: Advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS), airbags, crash ratings all impact your and your family’s safety.
Check using: NHTSA or IIHS crash test results.
6. Vehicle Suitability / Fit for Purpose
Why it matters: Are you hauling kids? Driving long distances? Off-roading? Towing? A low-price sedan won’t help if you need a truck.
Questions to ask yourself: Will this vehicle meet my actual daily needs?
7. Financing Terms (not just the monthly payment)
Why it matters: Low price doesn’t help if you're stuck with:
A high-interest loan
Long repayment terms
Hidden fees or penalties
Tip: Focus on the total cost of ownership, not just the monthly payment.
8. Warranty & Return Policy
Why it matters: Especially for used cars, a good dealership may offer short-term warranties or return policies.
Ask: What's covered? What’s the duration? Is there any return window?
9. Dealer Reputation
Why it matters: A dealership that only competes on price might cut corners.
Check: Google Reviews, Better Business Bureau, word of mouth.
10. Vehicle Age and Mileage Balance
Why it matters: A newer car with very high mileage may be worse than an older car with low mileage that’s been well maintained.
Pro tip: Don't obsess over mileage—condition and service records matter more.
The Problem With Price-Only Platforms
Sites like CarGurus, while helpful in creating competition, reduce cars to a commodity, ignoring nuance. This leads to:
Buyers undervaluing quality and reliability
Dealers racing to undercut each other at the cost of service or transparency
Fewer incentives for sellers to maintain vehicles properly
Final Thought
Buying a car is about value, not just cost. Smart buyers look for the right car at a fair price, not the cheapest car available.
If you're building or promoting a dealership or vehicle listing platform, considering filters based on reliability, condition, ownership cost, or verified maintenance records could actually add real value to the market and break the "race to the bottom" cycle. Want help brainstorming features for that kind of platform?
What are the most important things when buying a new or used car?
It can't be just price yet sites like cargurus.com ignores everything else and organize and show cars based on price and when price becomes the only thing your competing on it becomes nothing more than a race to the bottom for both the consumer and dealership.
How to verify a dealer's honesty beyond reviews?
Which cars offer best reliability per Consumer Reports?
Best features for a fair vehicle listing platform?
🔍 Filters and Features for Reliability
🔧 Data Sources (Low Cost / Free Options):
Public databases like:
Consumer Reports (limited free data)
J.D. Power (some free summaries)
IIHS / NHTSA for recalls & safety issues
Crowdsourced data: forums, Reddit, owner reviews
Your own user review system (long-term)
✅ Practical Filters for Reliability:
Overall Reliability Score (1–5 or A–F)
Based on aggregate reviews from trusted sources
Can be a model-year-specific score
Common Issues
Show known issues for make/model (transmission failures, oil leaks, etc.)
Recall History
Filter cars that have open recalls
Or display a warning badge if one exists
User-Submitted Reliability Ratings
Crowdsource reliability over time from your users
"Bulletproof Cars" Tag
Tag vehicles that have known reputations (e.g., Toyota Corolla, Honda Civic, etc.)
You could differentiate your platform by becoming a “Value-First Car Marketplace” instead of a price-only site. This empowers consumers to make smarter long-term decisions—and rewards dealerships that actually maintain and represent quality vehicles.
Would you like help drafting a data model or MVP layout for something like this?
Absolutely. A well-designed reliability score algorithm gives users confidence and adds real value to your platform. It should be transparent, explainable, and data-driven, combining multiple sources into a single normalized score.
Here’s a breakdown of how to design a Reliability Score Algorithm for your car marketplace:
🔢 Overview: What is a Reliability Score?
A numeric or letter-grade rating (e.g., 0–100 or A–F) that reflects how dependable a specific make/model/year is over time, based on real-world data. The score should ideally:
Help compare across brands and models
Reflect both short-term issues and long-term durability
Update as new data becomes available
🧠 Inputs to Use in the Algorithm
Here’s a modular framework. You don’t need to implement all at once—start with the easiest inputs and layer in more later.
Input Category
Example Data Source
Weight (adjustable)
✅ Recall History
NHTSA API, IIHS
15%
🔧 Common Repair Frequency
RepairPal, forums, Reddit, user reports
30%
💸 Cost of Repairs
RepairPal, shop data
15%
🗣️ User Reviews
CarGurus, Edmunds, your own site
15%
📊 Expert Ratings
Consumer Reports, J.D. Power
20%
🔁 Mileage Durability
Crowdsourced “Made it to 200k miles?” badges
5%
🧮 Sample Calculation (0–100 scale)
Let’s say you're scoring a 2017 Honda Accord.
1. Recall Score (15%)
Total Recalls: 2
Severity: Low
Adjustment: Minimal
Score: 90
2. Repair Frequency Score (30%)
Common repairs reported per 10,000 miles: 1.2 (industry avg is 2.0)
Score: 85
3. Repair Cost Score (15%)
Avg. cost of top 5 repairs = $400 (industry avg = $700)
Score: 92
4. User Ratings Score (15%)
Aggregated sentiment = 4.5/5 stars → normalized to 90
Score: 90
5. Expert Ratings Score (20%)
J.D. Power: 82
Consumer Reports: 85
Average = 83.5
Score: 83
6. Durability / Longevity Score (5%)
45% of these vehicles still on road after 200k miles
Are more or less people buying new and used cars and what is expected for the rest of this year and next year?
ChatGPT said:
To give you the most useful and up-to-date insights, could you clarify a few things:
Are you interested in global trends or specific to a country or region (e.g., United States, Europe, etc.)?
Are you focusing on consumer purchases, commercial/fleet sales, or both?
Are you looking for a summary of current sales volumes and forecasts for both new and used vehicles separately?
Let me know so I can tailor the research accordingly.
You said:
1. ) United States 2.) Consumer Purchases 3.) yes
ChatGPT said:
Thanks! I’ll gather data on consumer purchases of new and used cars in the United States, including current trends and forecasts for the rest of 2025 and into 2026. I’ll break down the findings to show how the market is evolving and what experts are projecting. I’ll update you once I have the results ready.
U.S. Consumer Trends in New and Used Car Purchases Through 2026
New Vehicle Market (2024–Mid-2025)
Recent data show U.S. new‐vehicle sales recovering modestly after the pandemic slump. Industry forecasters estimate about 15.5–16.0 million light vehicles were sold in 2024, roughly flat-to-up a few percent from 2023spglobal.com. Early 2025 has seen continuing strength: retail sales in Q1 and April 2025 ran well above year-ago levels (Q1 total ~3.86M, +5.3% yoyjdpower.com; April retail ~1.285M, +14.7% yoyjdpower.com). This surge was driven in part by consumers accelerating purchases ahead of possible tariff-driven price hikesjdpower.com. Overall, the seasonally-adjusted annual rate (SAAR) has recovered into the mid-to-high 16 million range (e.g. 17.9M SAAR in April 2025jdpower.com).
Pricing and incentives: Average new car transaction prices leveled off in 2024. Kelley Blue Book reports the 2024 average transaction price (ATP) was about $47,465, down 0.8% from 2023edmunds.com. After peaking in 2021–22, incentives have crept higher: for example, average incentives were about 5.7% of MSRP in early 2024coxautoinc.com and rose to roughly 7–8% by late 2024coxautoinc.com. Dealers in early 2025 began easing incentives as demand picked up. Loan interest rates remain very high by historical standards (averaging ~7% for new-car loansedmunds.com), which has constrained affordability even as rates modestly eased from 2023 highs.
Supply and inventory: The inventory picture shifted during 2024–25. By late 2024, dealer lots were unusually full – Cox Automotive reported U.S. new-vehicle inventory topping 3.0 million units (a post-pandemic high) in November 2024coxautoinc.com. Days of supply hovered well above the “60-day” ideal for much of 2024. However, April 2025 data show inventory drawing down: total unsold new vehicles fell to about 2.69 million on March 31, 2025, with days’ supply down to 70 dayscoxautoinc.com. This decline reflects the March sales surge. Despite fluctuations, average listing prices remain in the high‐$40,000s (around $47–48K) – about $895 above year-ago levelscoxautoinc.com. In summary, the new-car market in 2025 has been characterized by solid demand (boosted by tariff fears and improving sentiment), easing incentives, and gradually tightening inventory.
New Vehicle Market – Key Metrics: The table below compares 2024, 2025 (year-to-date), and 2026 forecasts for new-car volume, pricing and inventory.
The used-car market has seen strong demand but tight supply. After the extraordinary price run-up in 2020–21, used sales in 2024 cooled but remain high. Cox Automotive reports that used retail sales totaled roughly 20.0 million units in 2024 (including franchised and independent dealers). Early 2025 saw strong used sales: tax-refund season and tariff fears drove March 2025 used retail up ~12% yoykbb.com. However, sales pace slowed by spring as inventories tightened.
Pricing: Average used prices peaked in 2021 and then fell back. Kelley Blue Book data show the 2024 average used-vehicle transaction price was about $27,252, a 5.4% drop from 2023edmunds.com. In 2025, prices have stabilized. For example, KBB reports the average price paid by a used-car buyer in April 2025 was $25,547 – essentially unchanged from a year earlierkbb.com. Wholesale values have started to tick up: the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index in mid-May 2025 was roughly 4.3% higher than a year agocoxautoinc.com. In short, used prices are well above pre-pandemic levels but have largely plateaued (and even begun a modest rebound) in 2025.
Inventory: Used-vehicle supply remains very tight. Dealers entered 2025 with lower inventory than a year prior. Cox Automotive reports roughly 2.14 million unsold used cars at the end of March 2025, with days’ supply only 39 days (well below the normal ~50-day level)kbb.comkbb.com. By May 2025, inventory crept up slightly (to ~2.22M units, days supply ~43) as sales cooledcoxautoinc.com. Industry analysts note that millions of vehicles never made it to market due to the 2020–22 production shortfall, so available used stock will remain constrained for yearskbb.com. Limited supply and steady demand suggest used prices will be relatively firm going forward.
Used Vehicle Market – Key Metrics: Key 2024–2026 metrics for the used market are:
Sources: Cox Automotive (vAuto), Kelley Blue Book, industry forecasts. Price and APR data from Edmunds/KBBedmunds.comcoxautoinc.com; inventory from Cox’s vAuto analysiscoxautoinc.com.
Interest Rates and Financing
Financing costs have been a key factor. After Fed rate hikes in 2022–23, new-car loan rates peaked around mid-2023 and have since eased only slightly. Edmunds reports the average annual percentage rate (APR) for a new-car loan was ~7.1% in 2024edmunds.com (down marginally from 7.2% in 2023). Used-car loan rates averaged about 11–12% in 2024edmunds.com. By mid-2025, survey data (e.g. Bankrate) show 60-month new-car loans around 7.4%bankrate.com. In practice, high rates have dampened volume: some buyers have delayed purchases or shifted to cheaper models. Consumer expectations for rate cuts have also influenced timing. Kelley Blue Book notes the Fed “paused” in mid-2025 and further cuts are uncertainkbb.com. Overall, borrowing costs remain well above the sub-5% era of the 2010s, pressuring affordability in both new and used segments.
Supply Chain and Inventory Effects
Chip shortages (2020–22): The global semiconductor shortage from 2020–2022 sharply cut new-car production. As a result, millions of vehicles that would normally have entered the market never materialized, creating a long-term deficit in future used supply. Cox Automotive and others warn that “pandemic-era disruptions meant automakers built about 8 million fewer cars” than normal, so “millions of cars will never reach the used market”kbb.com. This legacy means used inventory remains unusually low.
Tariff threats and production: In early 2025, announcements of new tariffs on Chinese imports led to a buying surge. Consumers rushed to buy pre-tariff models, temporarily draining inventories and propelling sales (new and used) into double-digit growth in March–Apriljdpower.comkbb.com. Manufacturers responded with larger incentives in early 2024, then pulled back in 2025 as the buying spree unfoldedcoxautoinc.comjdpower.com. Overall, the new-car supply chain has mostly normalized (most chips and parts are now available), but any future production disruptions or policy changes could quickly tighten supplies again.
Dealer inventory: As of late 2024, dealer lots were replenished: U.S. new-car inventory exceeded 3.0 million (November 2024)coxautoinc.com, with about 90+ days’ supply at some brands. By spring 2025, inventory was drawing down to more normal levels (around 70 days’ supplycoxautoinc.com) due to brisk sales. Used inventory remains extremely tight: dealers entered 2025 with supply near all-time lows (under 40–45 days’ worth)kbb.comcoxautoinc.com. In short, supply-chain constraints are easing but the market remains supply-sensitive. Any fresh bottleneck (COVID resurgence, new parts shortage, or resumed tariff uncertainty) could again tighten both new and used inventories and reverse the recent pricing trends.
2025–2026 Outlook
Most industry analysts forecast only modest growth going forward. Cox Automotive’s economists recently revised 2025 new-light-vehicle sales downward to about 15.6–16.3 millioncoxautoinc.com, reflecting the earlier surge and expected slowing later in the year. Edmunds projects ~16.2 million new vehicles for 2025 (a 1.4% rise from 2024)edmunds.com. S&P Global foresees 16.04 million in 2026spglobal.com, with most gains driven by recovering fleet orders and continued moderate retail demand. Fleet/leasing is expected to stabilize (around ~25% of sales) and used car sales should remain high (~38 million total units in 2025coxautoinc.com) though up only slightly as used inventories slowly rebuild.
For pricing, forecasts are mixed. If interest rates ease and inventories tighten (as projected), new-car prices could firm. Cox analysts warn higher prices and fewer discounts on new vehicles by late 2025, with possible production cuts and model discontinuations under higher-tariff scenarioskbb.com. Used prices may rise modestly through 2025–26 as pandemic-era vehicle shortages constrain supply; some experts expect used values to trend back upward from current levels (3-year-old used prices are already above $30,000 in early 2025edmunds.com). However, absent major shocks, many forecasters see price declines in late 2025 as inventory catches up.
Outlook tables: The following compare 2024, 2025, and 2026 in summary. (Projections for 2026 assume no new policy disruptions.)
Sources: Forecasts and data from Cox Automotive, Edmunds, Kelley Blue Book, JD Power, and S&Pspglobal.comedmunds.comcoxautoinc.com. Projections assume moderate growth and no major new disruptions.
Key takeaways: After the post-pandemic boom-bust cycle, the U.S. auto market in 2024–2025 has settled into cautious recovery. New-car sales are up slightly, inventories are normalizing, and prices are roughly flat or down from 2022 highscoxautoinc.comedmunds.com. Used-car sales remain strong but supply-constrained, keeping prices well above pre-crisis levelskbb.comcoxautoinc.com. High borrowing costs and uncertainty (tariffs, economic outlook) are moderating demand. Analysts expect around 16 million new vehicle sales in both 2025 and 2026edmunds.comspglobal.com, with used sales also steady. The market’s near-term direction will hinge on interest rates, incentive policies, and inventory trends.
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New Vehicle Market (2024–Mid-2025)
Recent data show U.S. new‐vehicle sales recovering modestly after the pandemic slump. Industry forecasters estimate about 15.5–16.0 million light vehicles were sold in 2024, roughly flat-to-up a few percent from 2023spglobal.com. Early 2025 has seen continuing strength: retail sales in Q1 and April 2025 ran well above year-ago levels (Q1 total ~3.86M, +5.3% yoyjdpower.com; April retail ~1.285M, +14.7% yoyjdpower.com). This surge was driven in part by consumers accelerating purchases ahead of possible tariff-driven price hikesjdpower.com. Overall, the seasonally-adjusted annual rate (SAAR) has recovered into the mid-to-high 16 million range (e.g. 17.9M SAAR in April 2025jdpower.com).
Pricing and incentives: Average new car transaction prices leveled off in 2024. Kelley Blue Book reports the 2024 average transaction price (ATP) was about $47,465, down 0.8% from 2023edmunds.com. After peaking in 2021–22, incentives have crept higher: for example, average incentives were about 5.7% of MSRP in early 2024coxautoinc.com and rose to roughly 7–8% by late 2024coxautoinc.com. Dealers in early 2025 began easing incentives as demand picked up. Loan interest rates remain very high by historical standards (averaging ~7% for new-car loansedmunds.com), which has constrained affordability even as rates modestly eased from 2023 highs.
Supply and inventory: The inventory picture shifted during 2024–25. By late 2024, dealer lots were unusually full – Cox Automotive reported U.S. new-vehicle inventory topping 3.0 million units (a post-pandemic high) in November 2024coxautoinc.com. Days of supply hovered well above the “60-day” ideal for much of 2024. However, April 2025 data show inventory drawing down: total unsold new vehicles fell to about 2.69 million on March 31, 2025, with days’ supply down to 70 dayscoxautoinc.com. This decline reflects the March sales surge. Despite fluctuations, average listing prices remain in the high‐$40,000s (around $47–48K) – about $895 above year-ago levelscoxautoinc.com. In summary, the new-car market in 2025 has been characterized by solid demand (boosted by tariff fears and improving sentiment), easing incentives, and gradually tightening inventory.
New Vehicle Market – Key Metrics: The table below compares 2024, 2025 (year-to-date), and 2026 forecasts for new-car volume, pricing and inventory.
The used-car market has seen strong demand but tight supply. After the extraordinary price run-up in 2020–21, used sales in 2024 cooled but remain high. Cox Automotive reports that used retail sales totaled roughly 20.0 million units in 2024 (including franchised and independent dealers). Early 2025 saw strong used sales: tax-refund season and tariff fears drove March 2025 used retail up ~12% yoykbb.com. However, sales pace slowed by spring as inventories tightened.
Pricing: Average used prices peaked in 2021 and then fell back. Kelley Blue Book data show the 2024 average used-vehicle transaction price was about $27,252, a 5.4% drop from 2023edmunds.com. In 2025, prices have stabilized. For example, KBB reports the average price paid by a used-car buyer in April 2025 was $25,547 – essentially unchanged from a year earlierkbb.com. Wholesale values have started to tick up: the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index in mid-May 2025 was roughly 4.3% higher than a year agocoxautoinc.com. In short, used prices are well above pre-pandemic levels but have largely plateaued (and even begun a modest rebound) in 2025.
Inventory: Used-vehicle supply remains very tight. Dealers entered 2025 with lower inventory than a year prior. Cox Automotive reports roughly 2.14 million unsold used cars at the end of March 2025, with days’ supply only 39 days (well below the normal ~50-day level)kbb.comkbb.com. By May 2025, inventory crept up slightly (to ~2.22M units, days supply ~43) as sales cooledcoxautoinc.com. Industry analysts note that millions of vehicles never made it to market due to the 2020–22 production shortfall, so available used stock will remain constrained for yearskbb.com. Limited supply and steady demand suggest used prices will be relatively firm going forward.
Used Vehicle Market – Key Metrics: Key 2024–2026 metrics for the used market are:
Sources: Cox Automotive (vAuto), Kelley Blue Book, industry forecasts. Price and APR data from Edmunds/KBBedmunds.comcoxautoinc.com; inventory from Cox’s vAuto analysiscoxautoinc.com.
Interest Rates and Financing
Financing costs have been a key factor. After Fed rate hikes in 2022–23, new-car loan rates peaked around mid-2023 and have since eased only slightly. Edmunds reports the average annual percentage rate (APR) for a new-car loan was ~7.1% in 2024edmunds.com (down marginally from 7.2% in 2023). Used-car loan rates averaged about 11–12% in 2024edmunds.com. By mid-2025, survey data (e.g. Bankrate) show 60-month new-car loans around 7.4%bankrate.com. In practice, high rates have dampened volume: some buyers have delayed purchases or shifted to cheaper models. Consumer expectations for rate cuts have also influenced timing. Kelley Blue Book notes the Fed “paused” in mid-2025 and further cuts are uncertainkbb.com. Overall, borrowing costs remain well above the sub-5% era of the 2010s, pressuring affordability in both new and used segments.
Supply Chain and Inventory Effects
Chip shortages (2020–22): The global semiconductor shortage from 2020–2022 sharply cut new-car production. As a result, millions of vehicles that would normally have entered the market never materialized, creating a long-term deficit in future used supply. Cox Automotive and others warn that “pandemic-era disruptions meant automakers built about 8 million fewer cars” than normal, so “millions of cars will never reach the used market”kbb.com. This legacy means used inventory remains unusually low.
Tariff threats and production: In early 2025, announcements of new tariffs on Chinese imports led to a buying surge. Consumers rushed to buy pre-tariff models, temporarily draining inventories and propelling sales (new and used) into double-digit growth in March–Apriljdpower.comkbb.com. Manufacturers responded with larger incentives in early 2024, then pulled back in 2025 as the buying spree unfoldedcoxautoinc.comjdpower.com. Overall, the new-car supply chain has mostly normalized (most chips and parts are now available), but any future production disruptions or policy changes could quickly tighten supplies again.
Dealer inventory: As of late 2024, dealer lots were replenished: U.S. new-car inventory exceeded 3.0 million (November 2024)coxautoinc.com, with about 90+ days’ supply at some brands. By spring 2025, inventory was drawing down to more normal levels (around 70 days’ supplycoxautoinc.com) due to brisk sales. Used inventory remains extremely tight: dealers entered 2025 with supply near all-time lows (under 40–45 days’ worth)kbb.comcoxautoinc.com. In short, supply-chain constraints are easing but the market remains supply-sensitive. Any fresh bottleneck (COVID resurgence, new parts shortage, or resumed tariff uncertainty) could again tighten both new and used inventories and reverse the recent pricing trends.
2025–2026 Outlook
Most industry analysts forecast only modest growth going forward. Cox Automotive’s economists recently revised 2025 new-light-vehicle sales downward to about 15.6–16.3 millioncoxautoinc.com, reflecting the earlier surge and expected slowing later in the year. Edmunds projects ~16.2 million new vehicles for 2025 (a 1.4% rise from 2024)edmunds.com. S&P Global foresees 16.04 million in 2026spglobal.com, with most gains driven by recovering fleet orders and continued moderate retail demand. Fleet/leasing is expected to stabilize (around ~25% of sales) and used car sales should remain high (~38 million total units in 2025coxautoinc.com) though up only slightly as used inventories slowly rebuild.
For pricing, forecasts are mixed. If interest rates ease and inventories tighten (as projected), new-car prices could firm. Cox analysts warn higher prices and fewer discounts on new vehicles by late 2025, with possible production cuts and model discontinuations under higher-tariff scenarioskbb.com. Used prices may rise modestly through 2025–26 as pandemic-era vehicle shortages constrain supply; some experts expect used values to trend back upward from current levels (3-year-old used prices are already above $30,000 in early 2025edmunds.com). However, absent major shocks, many forecasters see price declines in late 2025 as inventory catches up.
Outlook tables: The following compare 2024, 2025, and 2026 in summary. (Projections for 2026 assume no new policy disruptions.)
Sources: Forecasts and data from Cox Automotive, Edmunds, Kelley Blue Book, JD Power, and S&Pspglobal.comedmunds.comcoxautoinc.com. Projections assume moderate growth and no major new disruptions.
Key takeaways: After the post-pandemic boom-bust cycle, the U.S. auto market in 2024–2025 has settled into cautious recovery. New-car sales are up slightly, inventories are normalizing, and prices are roughly flat or down from 2022 highscoxautoinc.comedmunds.com. Used-car sales remain strong but supply-constrained, keeping prices well above pre-crisis levelskbb.comcoxautoinc.com. High borrowing costs and uncertainty (tariffs, economic outlook) are moderating demand. Analysts expect around 16 million new vehicle sales in both 2025 and 2026edmunds.comspglobal.com, with used sales also steady. The market’s near-term direction will hinge on interest rates, incentive policies, and inventory trends.
With over two decades of experience, Janeth is a seasoned programmer, designer, and frontend developer passionate about creating websites that empower individuals, families, and businesses to achieve financial stability and success.
